#NigeriaDecides2019: FINAL: THEWILL 2019 Presidential Election Projection

LAGOS, February 22, (THEWILL) – With Nigeria’s presidential election just hours away, we present our last projection premised on how our analysts think eligible voters will cast their votes across the 36 states and the FCT, in a race that is clearly between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP.

THEWILL analysts took into consideration the dynamics of this year’s vote (Both Atiku and Buhari have very high unfavourable numbers and are hardly the favourites amongst voters; they are ideologically different on the role of government in the economy, they are in their 70s; Muslims; and are Fulanis from northern Nigeria).

Buhari is roundly perceived to be slow, looks less capable and governs in an uninspiring style, but has his integrity and his good intentions for the country as his main selling point.

On the other hand, the thinking is that Atiku, the wealthy businessman and former top Customs officer, will do better on the fragile economy and govern in a more robust style, but he has been unable to shake off the perception of corruption and impropriety that has dogged his political career and raised eye brows about his wealth.

THEWILL analysts also took into consideration the strength of the two candidates and their parties in previous elections from 2003 – 2015, whilst also acknowledging that this is the APC’s first national election as the ruling party, leaving the once dominant PDP playing defence for the very first time.

As Nigeria and the world anxiously await the outcome of this all-important presidential vote, here is a breakdown of the number of people that have collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVC’s) and will be eligible to vote even though there are over 84 million registered voters in the register.

NorthCentral -11, 567, 813
NorthEast – 10, 450, 882
Northwest – 18, 231, 193
Southeast – 8, 590, 420
Southsouth – 11, 120, 948
Southwest– 12, 814, 246

Total collected PVCs – 72, 775, 502.


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