July 24, (THEWILL) – The Osun State governorship election, which held on Saturday, July 16, 2022 has come and gone, but its result and the defeat of Governor Gboyega Oyetola, who had hoped for a second term, will have implications on the forthcoming general election scheduled for February and March, 2023.
In the result announced by the Election Returning Officer and Vice Chancellor of the University of Lagos, Prof Oluwatoyin Ogundipe, Senator Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) scored 403,371 votes to defeat Governor Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who scored 375,027 votes.
Prof Ogundipe declared Ademola Adeleke the winner of the election. He said that apart from winning the total majority votes, the PDP and its candidate also won in the majority of the state’s local government areas. The PDP won in 17 of Osun’s 30 local government areas, while the APC won in 13.
The result of the election came as a shock to many Nigerians who believed that it would be difficult to defeat an incumbent state governor in an election.
Both the PDP and APC had interpreted the result in different ways. The National Chairman of the PDP, Dr Iyorchia Ayu, saw his party’s victory in Osun State as an indication that the people were tired of the APC and welcoming the PDP. According to him, the PDP would follow up the victory in Osun with another victory at the presidential election in 2023.
On the other hand, National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu believed that the internal bickering within the Osun chapter of the party had cost it victory in the governorship election.
In a statement issued shortly after the announcement of the election result, penultimate Sunday, titled, ‘Osun people have spoken and Nigerians will speak too,’ Ayu said the convincing win by 403, 371 votes against Gov. Oyetola’s 375, 027 is ample proof of overwhelming support for the PDP in the state.
The statement reads in part, “Twelve years ago, specifically on November 26, 2010, the PDP lost Osun State – not through the ballot-box – but via a judicial coup (ruling).
“That coup (ruling) terminated the action-packed tenure of H.E. Olagunsoye Oyinlola. Since then, Osun was frozen in executive misrule and underdevelopment.
“Four years ago, the PDP won the governorship election, but our candidate, Sen. Adeleke, was robbed of victory in broad daylight. We went back to the drawing-board and today, we have reclaimed our victory.
“Today is, therefore, not just a day of double restoration – it is a day of redemption, too. It restores PDP to power and redeems the Osun people from the scourge of mediocrity, empty promises and excuses.
“I congratulate the two-time winner, the tenacious Adeleke. I congratulate the good people and residents of Osun State. I hail every party stakeholder who stood with us in action, prayers and hope.
“You have kept faith with the PDP. You refused to be intimidated. You refused to be bought over with foodstuffs and 30 silver coins. You said no to thuggery and vote-fraud. You have done well.
“I thank the PDP National Campaign Council for the Osun State Governorship Election, headed by His Excellency, Governor Duoye Diri of Bayelsa State, for a superlative performance. I thank our vice presidential candidate, Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State, for his tireless work. PDP is proud of all of you.
“You have helped to return PDP to power after 12 years. You have returned hope to Osun State. But beyond this, you have renewed the quit notice on the reigning APC Federal government. PDP first issued the quit notice in December last year when this present leadership assumed office.
“This election was a referendum on the disastrous APC stewardship, and proves conclusively that Nigerians want PDP back. And, indeed, PDP is coming!
“I also salute the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as well as security agencies for toeing the path of neutrality and ensuring that the votes counted.
“The task before us now is to transit from opposition to governance. This we shall do.
“With Osun done, next comes the Aso Rock Villa! We call on all PDP members and all Nigerians to join the moving PDP train. Don’t be left behind. Our next destination is Aso Villa.
“With PDP, Nigeria shall rise again. Indeed, she is already rising. Osun people have spoken. The rest of Nigeria shall speak with a resounding Voice on 25th February 2023”.
In an interview with BBC Hausa, the National Chairman of the APC, Senator Adamu said the crisis within the APC caused the party’s defeat at the Osun poll, not that the party was not capable of winning.
He said, “We lost the race not because we are incapable, but because of the crisis within. We had a massive gathering of supporters a few days before the election in Osogbo. No one could ever anticipate that we would lose the election.
“The Osun defeat doesn’t in any way mean that we will lose at the general election. We only lost one state out of the 22 we have. You see, we are still strong. nWe will sit and check ourselves. We must ask ourselves what is right and wrong and what needs to be corrected.”
Takeaways from Osun Election
..Buhari, INEC Receive Kudos
The 2022 governorship election in Osun State has been described as one of the best elections ever conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). All local and international observers who monitored the election gave the electoral umpire kudos. Even the PDP and APC expressed the opinion that the INEC did a great job. Both parties endorsed the exercise as free, fair and credible.
Also President Muhammadu Buhari was commended for instructing the security agencies and INEC to provide a level playing field for all competitors in the election and their supporters.
Many analysts and watchers of political development believe that INEC was able to achieve the feat largely because of the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), an electronic device designed to read Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) and also authenticate voters.
Also the electronic transmission of results from the polling units to the INEC’s website aided INEC’s ability to ensure a free and credible election in Osun State.
The Osun election, to a very reasonable extent, was credible, free and fair. It produced an election result which has been very difficult for any honest competitor in the election to challenge, not even the defeated Governor Gboyega Oyetola.
This is why the leadership of INEC, which stuck to its guns despite frustrations from certain quarters, and President Buhari wasted no time in approving it because it would enhance his resolve to leave behind a legacy of decent electoral culture, are commendable.
Voters Reject Tinubu, Oyetola
The result of the governorship election showed that the people of Osun had rejected Governor Oyetola and APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu. This means that the election was used as a referendum over Oyetola’s four-year rule and he failed.
Oyetola lost the governorship election with a wide margin. For Tinubu, it was an unwelcome development, especially as he was expected to provide the much-needed tonic for the victory of Oyetola and by extension, give an indication of the good things to come to the party as the nation journeys towards 2023, but he failed.
PDP’s victory as a positive sign
The PDP’s win at the poll is a sign that the party was on a right path to victory, come 2023. However, the PDP must put its house in order as quickly as possible. The leadership should bring everyone together for the challenge ahead. The election was a clear boost to its chances in 2023.
APC at low ebb
APC, which is the governing party at the state and federal levels, seem to have lost steam. Analysts believe the manner in which the APC lost the election has shown that the brand is no more enticing to the people of Osun State and possibly to other Nigerians.
It shows the party leadership at the state and national levels have failed in their duty to unite the party. It says something about the leadership quality of the party’s National Working Committee led by Senator Abdullahi Adamu.
The election’s result is also seen as a verdict on the government of Oyetola in Osun State and by extension, the Muhammadu Buhari Administration.
OBIdient Movement couldn’t help LP
Peter Obi’s Labour Party failed to win in the Osun governorship election though it fielded a former Chieftain of the APC and former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Lasun Yusuff, as its candidate.
Despite the large number of youths in Osun that registered for the election, the highest in recent time, yet, those who voted among them chose between the two major parties, the APC and the PDP.
Yusuff scored 2,729 votes and ended in a distant fifth position. The implication is that all the noise about Obi’s candidature in the social media did not reflect in the performance of the party in the election. This means that the party may need to do more homework before the 2023 general election.
Why Oyetola lost the election
Oyetola, who is the incumbent governor, defeated Adeleke in the 2018 Osun governorship election after a supplementary election.
Political watchers and analysts have agreed that the polarisation of the APC into two factions – Ileri Oluwa Group led by Governor Oyetola and The Osun Progressives (TOP) led by the Minister of Interior and Oyetola’s predecessor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, led to the APC’s defeat in the election.
Most of the TOP members that were sidelined by Oyetola are the real grassroots leaders of the party who have over the years built the structures of the progressives from 1999 under Chief Bisi Akande.
Oyetola was deceived that with the National Secretary of the APC, Senator Iyiola Omisore, on his side, he would win without the support of the TOP Group. The election had however proved that wrong.
Before now, Omisore used to have firm control of the Ife Area, which consists of Ife East, Ife Central, Ife South and Ife North. Ife Area is also noted to be the place where the highest number of votes comes from in the state. But in the last election, Omisore lost his grip on the area as the APC had a narrow win. In the four local government areas, the APC had 59,678 votes, while the PDP had 51,078 votes.
Another factor that aided Oyetola’s defeat in the election is the refusal of the APC to respect the zoning arrangement in Osun State. Osun Central, where Oyetola comes from, had produced two former governors: Chief Bisi Akande from 1999 to 2003 and Chief Olagunsoye Oyinlola from 2003 to 2007. Osun East ruled the state through Aregbesola, who hails from Ilesha, for eight years.
The agitation by the people of Osun West to have their turn had been rebuffed by the APC, who continuously neglected the district. So the entire district rallied round the PDP candidate, Ademola Adeleke, who is from Ede and shouts of “it is our turn”(Awa lokan) was audible before and during the election.
The result of the election is also a referendum on Oyetola’s performance in the last four years. Many said that apart from Olaiya Flyover Bridge in the heart of Osogbo, he failed to provide infrastructure for the people of the state.
The governorship election afforded residents of the state an opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with his performance in office.
Many APC leaders in the state openly complained that Oyetola had not been a good party man. To them he is not only colourless, but also stingy. Many of those who were given money to mobilise the residents for the election, it was gathered, pocketed the money as they had allegedly been ‘starved’ by the governor in the past four years.
It was further gathered that most of Oyetola’s aides, commissioners, special advisers and special assistants misrepresented the governor to the public, describing him as very stingy and the one that refused to give them enough money to take care of the people.
Oyetola was not loved by his party and its members. He was detested by the residents, hence his failure not only to secure victory as an incumbent governor but lost with a wide margin to the opposition’s candidate, Adeleke.
Osun Verdict and 2023 election
The APC must embark on a reconciliation drive, ahead of the 2023 general election. There is also an urgent need for the APC to do some introspection and fix things as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, the Osun governorship poll is the last off-cycle election before 2023 and there will be no grounds to test the party’s popularity before the general election. It can still make some efforts and hope they turn out well.
The election result also showed that the wishes of the people were reflected, hence there were no protests after the announcement of the result. Both the winner and the loser were satisfied that INEC did a good job. So the turnout in the 2023 general election will be massive as the people now have confidence in INEC.
The main opposition party, the PDP will also go to the 2023 poll with some level of confidence, having won the last off-cycle election before the general election.
Nigerians will expect the security agencies to maintain their neutrality as they did during the Osun election.
About the Author
AYO ESAN, has been actively reporting and analyzing political events for different newspapers for over 18 years. He has also successfully covered national and state elections in Nigeria since the inception of this democracy in 1999.
