…Key Governors Oppose Move Backed by Adamu, Uzodinma, Kalu, Others
…The Intrigues, Power Play
…Amaechi Tipped As Buhari’s Preferred Successor
May 22, (THEWILL) – It is as clear as broad daylight that some influential figures in the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) can no longer hide their preference for a presidential candidate from the North in the 2023 general election as pressure mounts for the party to cede the ticket to the Southern part of the country.
Although the high-wire politicking remains intense with just a few days to the presidential convention of the party, it however appears that the bloc is having a hard time selling the candidature of Senate President, Dr. Ahmad Lawan, who is from Gashua, Yobe State, North East, as their preferred candidate, to other powerful interests in the party including President Muhammadu Buhari.
The major resistance to Lawan’s presidency, according to THEWILL checks, are three key state governors – Nasir El-rufai (Kaduna), Abubakar Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi) and Badaru Mohammed Abubakar (Jigawa). Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami (SAN) as well as President Muhammadu Buhari’s very influential nephew, Mamman Daura are not supporting the move, according to our authoritative sources.
Multiple sources also confirmed to THEWILL that the bloc has not consulted with President Muhammadu Buhari on this project. “The plan is that they want to agree on an acceptable northern candidate among them and then meet with the President to convince him to support the person. So far, they have not agreed on anyone yet after the opposition to Lawan’s candidacy,” one of the sources said.
The other presidential aspirants from the North are Badaru Abubakar and Senator Ahmed Sani Yerimah, who jumped into the race for the Presidency after the APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, announced that the party has not zoned the presidency to the south because its main rival, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is plotting to field a northern candidate due to the zone’s voting strength. Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State is the other governor from the zone.
However, of the four from the North, Lawan was favoured by the northern bloc which has Abdullahi Adamu, Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodinma, Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege and Senator Orji Uzor Kalu as frontline actors who are willingly doing the bidding of some unseen forces within the corridors of the presidency.
Even at that, some doubts still surround the preference for Lawan as a source close to the development told our correspondent that at least two members of the bloc have withdrawn their support for him.
According to our sources, the bloc is now considering Gov Badaru Abubakar of Jigawa State as someone they can convince to abandon his support for a southern president. It is however unclear whether Abubakar has been conscripted into their plot as at the time of writing this report.
When a leading aspirant from the South, who is believed to be President Buhari’s preferred candidate to succeed him, former Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, paid him a visit, Badaru Abubakar had promised not to contest against him saying: “I repeat I will not contest against my friend and brother. We are brothers who share the same mission and cannot in any way run against each other.”
The governor said he would await President Buhari’s directive, whom he described as “our father.”
THEWILL reports that the bloc has been relentlessly plotting to halt Amaechi’s presidential bid, including those of other aspirants from the South. It is also said to be influencing even the opposition PDP to settle only for a northern candidate.
THEWILL recalls that the response to Lawan’s declaration for the 2023 presidency among the senators, especially the APC majority caucus, was overwhelming. Senator Kalu, for instance, said that since Lawan entered the race he had dropped his ambition for the 2023 presidential ticket.
A Public Policy Analyst, Magnus Onyibe, while speaking on the open support given to Lawal by Uzor Kalu, said, “As a matter of fact, I would assume that he has probably read the dynamics of the situation on ground and he decided to go in the direction he is going. Initially he had said that he would contest, but I think that he changed his mind when he saw the handwriting on the wall and saw that his chance was very little.”
WHY LAWAN ENTERED THE RACE
In making a case for Lawan’s ascendancy, his advocates, who are mostly close to some players in the Presidency, are also falling for the prevailing political calculations floating around. They are hell bent on power remaining in the North and for a Fulani to take over from Buhari.
The first is to dredge up the micro-management argument of the supporters of zoning. As a northeasterner, Lawan’s zone, like the South-East, is yet to produce a president. The farthest both geo-political zones have gone in this regard have been to produce Vice Presidents: Alex Ekwueme, an indigene of Anambra State in the South-East, was Vice President to late President Shehu Shagari between 1979 and 1983, when the administration was terminated by a military coup.
Similarly, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who hails from Adamawa State in the North-East, was Vice President to President Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007. For the minders of Lawan, the North-Central geo-political zone has been taken care of for now. The National Chairman, Adamu, hails from Nasarawa State, which is in that geo-political zone.
Secondly, there is the political consideration aimed at frustrating the PDP. Lawan’s supporters envisage a situation where former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, also from the North-East, wins the PDP presidential ticket.
Handy for Lawan’s supporters is the reworked Electoral Act Amendment, particularly the controversial section 84(12), which prescribes rules for those that can appear as delegates at party conventions. There is also the most recent amendment (section 84(8) which the president is yet to sign. It allows elected representatives, including the president, vice president, governors and deputy governors to vote during party primaries as statutory delegates.
Sources have said that if the President signs the amended Act, Lawan will reap from it. Intense lobbying that went into the amendment included a pat-my-back agreement with members of the National Assembly, particularly from the APC, who would be required to give a bloc vote for the Senate President at the convention in return for cast-iron support for those who want to return to the National Assembly in 2023. Should the party adopt a consensual agreement, that constituency would be boosted by the religious and ethnic cards for delegates from the North, a majority of whom are in support of power remaining in the North. Lastly, in Lawan’s favour according to his promoters, lies the self-interest of the Presidency which will want to pick a loyal, trusting successor to Buhari.
For all his 23 years in the National Assembly, since the beginning of the current democratic dispensation, Senator Lawan has built a solid reputation as a perfect establishment man who would openly propose, defend and canvass views and policies that support the system. His tenure as Senate President has clearly demonstrated this as he has often succeeded in cobbling members’ support to grant approval for anything that came from the executive.
Just like the National Chairman, Adamu, who was rewarded for his unwavering support for Buhari, particularly during the radical Senate presidency of Dr Bukola Saraki when he headed a Pro-Buhari support group of Senators, Lawan backers are hoping he would reap from his loyalty.
THE NAYSAYERS
Bright as his chances are, Lawan’s path is also strewn with opposition and the bloc is aware of this, hence its last week’s clam that it is yet to take a position on zoning. Top party sources who spoke with THEWILL under strict confidentiality say those pushing the Senate President’s aspirations are bent on betraying a gentleman’s agreement on zoning that will not augur well for the party.
Most recently, they maintain, it was this gentleman’s agreement that produced Adamu as consensus National Chairman. Under the micro zoning arrangement that produced Adamu at the party convention on March 26, 2022, previous offices that were held by the North and South switched places.
According to Governor Nasir el-Rufai, who explained it then, the South-South, South-West, South-East swapped the offices of the National Working Committee with the North-Central, North-West and North-East, respectively. With the emergence of Adamu, it was understood that the party would honour the power sharing arrangement to cede power to the South.
The brokered arrangement that saw Adamu’s emergence as National Chairman succeeded because it was understood that after eight years of Buhari’s presidency, power would naturally go to the South.
This brazen decision to flout the zoning arrangement poses a threat to Nigeria’s political stability, argue the source, adding that the party may indirectly sabotage its interest in the South, particularly in the South-East and South-South where its influence has grown in the past few years with the defection of Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State and Prof Ben Ayade of Cross Rivers State and many state and National Assembly members.
Besides, the party’s decision flies in the face of equity, fairness and justice as enshrined in the Constitution. Section 14 (3) of the Constitution, for, instance states: “The composition of the Government of the Federation or any of its agencies and the conduct of its affairs shall be carried out in such a manner as to reflect the federal character of Nigeria and the need to promote national unity, and also to command national loyalty, thereby ensuring that there shall be no predominance of persons from a few States or other sectional groups in that Government or any of its agencies.”
Even the political mileage that Lawan’s choice holds for the fortunes of the party as being canvassed by his plotters may be farfetched, the sources further adduced.
Given its dismal performance on all fronts, chiefly on its major agenda on security, economy and corruption, it is doubtful if the APC can still muster a quarter of the support it had in 2019, not to talk of 2015 which was a high point of its success as a political party. Poverty, widespread insecurity, unemployment and agitation for separation and self-determination have combined to reduce the larger-than-life image of the party on ascension to power in 2015 to that of a tamed hero in a village square.
Some big wigs in the party, it was learnt, are also not comfortable with the idea that the governing party would be seeking to allow the opposition PDP to determine how it makes its choices, even though both of them are engaged in the same game to capture state power.
Speaking and acting publicly as the National Chairman has done on the presidency weakens the public image of the party, which is being perceived as a Siamese twin with the election of key NWC members from the rank and file of defectors from the PDP.
AMAECHI AS BUHARI’S PREFERRED SUCCESSOR?
It appears President Muhammadu Buhari has settled for the former Minister of Transport as his preferred successor, according to at least two authoritative sources who are conversant with the development and confided in THEWILL.
One of the sources, who asked to remain anonymous, said Amaechi has the full backing of the President to succeed him. “The President’s most trusted adviser, Mallam Mamman Daura, has embraced the Amaechi project. The president’s wife is wholly with him. These are the most important pointers that President Buhari has signalled privately to his family that Amaechi is the one,” the source said, adding that with the former Chief of Army Staff, retired Lt. General Tukur Buratai’s departure from his post as Nigeria’s Ambassador to Benin Republic to campaign with Amaechi is a pointer to where the president’s heart is on his successor.
“It is no secret that General Buratai is very close to President Buhari. Did you know that at some point when he was Chief of Army Staff everyone within the president’s circle, including his then Chief of Staff, Abba Kyari, wanted him removed as head of the army, but Buhari refused?” the source added.
THEWILL further gathered that President Buhari will this week meet with key party leaders where he would anoint his successor and seek the party’s support for the candidate.
The APC’s presidential primary has been scheduled to hold on May 29 and May 30.
*** By Amos Esele and Ayo Esan
About the Author
Amos Esele is the Deputy Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
