June 20, (THEWILL)- The governing All Progressives Congress and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party are surely on a not-too-comfortable sabbatical. The apparent silence of the two leading political parties on burning issues of national importance is also becoming worrisome. THEWILL can authoritatively reveal that the seeming “peace of the graveyard” disposition of both parties, especially at a time Nigeria has found herself at a crossroads, is all about the 2023 general elections.
Skirting the political landmines, ahead of the next general elections, has, no doubt, turned the erstwhile vibrant parties into passive observers of national issues to the consternation and disappointment of many Nigerians. The overwhelming influence of the worsening insecurity in the country on national priorities has, indeed, relegated active partisan politics to the backwaters of national discourse.
With about a year and a half to go into the next general polls, the polity would have gone into a rehearsal of a sort by now. But the reverse has been the case as the APC and PDP try everything within their powers to avoid pitfalls that could jeopardise their political interests, ahead of the next elections.
Confirming the current disposition of the two leading parties to THEWILL on Friday, a top government source, who craved anonymity, said, “The insecurity situation in the country has made everybody, high or low, tiny or mighty, to be careful and watchful, weighing options before making categorical moves.”
NOT-TOO-GOLDEN SILENCE
But the silence of the two leading parties on burning national issues is not golden in any way. The general insecurity has shaken the country to its very foundation, just as the fears of possible disintegration of the once-united Nigeria are just too much to be ignored.
Issues, such as restructuring of the country, which has over time attracted national consensus as virtually all the six geo–political zones have prominent supporters, has somehow become a subject of mimicry when taking into consideration that the ruling party has since dumped the report of the Governor Nasiru el-Rufai-led committee on restructuring.
Burning issues on insecurity, violence and increasing mistrust and distrusts among the diverse, multi-ethnic nationalities in the country have not attracted policy reaction, fearing doing so might jeopardise their interests in the 2023 elections.
BREAKING THE ICE
It, however, took the much-flaunted interview by President Muhammadu Buhari on Arise Television and the subsequent one broadcast on Nigerian Television Authority to douse the rising tension. But then, the President rather spoke his mind and not the mind of the ruling party which, unfortunately, has no executive body. His revelation that the APC as a party would determine his successor without individual interference was seen as a significant step towards resetting the grinding process of partisan politics, ahead of the 2023 general polls.
This is particularly so for his party and the main opposition PDP, both of whom operate like a tag-team partner, among others, in the battle for power and governance.
President Buhari disclosed that the Governor Mai Bala Buni led-Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC) of the party is expected to submit its report on the re-organisation of the APC to him for vetting, adding that nobody can sit in Lagos and determine how things would be done.
PRESIDENTIAL UPPER CUT
“I told the acting chairman and the committee to give me the report on the convention they are going to conduct by the end of the month and then arrange general elections until 2023. All the elections. And we started this from the bottom to the top, so that members of the party will be sure they are involved in decision making.
“Nobody is just going to sit in Lagos and tell them what to do. This is what we are arranging. Succession plan depends on the party. The party will sit and make its decision by the constituencies they won,” Buhari had said.
The presidency was quick to deny the submission by pundits that the reference to a person “sitting in Lagos to conduct the affairs of the party” was a presidential upper cut aimed at Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the influential Lagos-based politician whose influence in national party affairs and governance has been drastically curtailed.
POLITICAL LANDMINES
“The remark showed some of the landmines the party is skirting, ahead of 2023,” a dependable government source told THEWILL.
Explaining further, the source disclosed that it was not entirely factual that the party discountenanced Tinubu’s influence in the APC and in the South-West geo-political zone but that the issue of the strange title of National Leader of the party, which Tinubu has claimed for himself since the formation of the party from the legacy parties, has continued to rankle party big wigs and Buhari was in a way reasserting his power to claim that title the party unquestionably ascribed to him as a top party boss when he made the statement in reference to his oversight powers on the expected CECPC report.
THEWILL also recalls that almost immediately former National Chairman of the governing APC, Chief John Odigie Oyegun, replied the President subtly but firmly on his statement that the party would decide his successor. He reminded the President that zoning is a ‘gentleman’ arrangement in the party that should be applied to enhance inclusiveness among members.
“What the President said is what it ought to be. We are building not just a political party but a nation. Politics is all about inclusiveness. Although some Nigerians choose to call it zoning or rotation, I prefer to call it inclusiveness. We must learn to be as inclusive as possible. Every part of a local government, a state or a nation, especially as multi-ethnic and multi-religious as Nigeria, must build a system where everyone will have a sense of belonging there is no two ways to it. Every part of this great country should be given a sense of belonging, in terms of appointive and elective office. Zoning is inevitable,” Oyegun had said. For a party that has no formal declaration on zoning in its constitution, that arrangement poses a landmine to the APC, which the party is skirting.
SHIFTING THE GOAL POST
THEWILL investigations have, however, shown that one of the major reasons APC has kept shifting its convention date is because of the issue of the president’s successor, apart from the crises within the party’s chapters in many states and local governments, all of which are still fueled by a power play that is still ongoing among the legacies parties that merged into the APC in 2013.
In reality, the party is keeping a careful watch over its main rival, the PDP, which is, naturally, eager to reclaim the power it lost at the 2015 general elections. But the PDP has not even started to think of a national convention so soon when the current Chairman, Uche Secondus, would be staying in office till the end of the year.
On Thursday, however, Kebbi State governor, Atiku Bagudu, disclosed that the Caretaker Committee had, indeed, submitted its report to President Buhari. The party convention, he said, would be a matter of days once the presidential had given his approval.
“The Progressives Governors Forum met this evening and reviewed a number of issues relating to the assignments given to committee members, who participated in party affairs, national security and the economy,” said Atiku who is Chairman of the PGF, while addressing journalism after a meeting of the 22 governors of the party in Abuja. The PGF comprises governors elected on the platform of the APC.
“There is a proposal before Mr. President and once he approves it, the National Caretaker Committee will announce the date,” the Kebbi governor further disclosed.
Although THEWILL learnt that the issue of exploiting the possibility of zoning power to the South is included in the CECPC report before President Buhari, some party hawks, it was also learnt, are uncertain if it would receive the President’s support.
UNFOLDING BRINKMANSHIP
THEWILL can authoritatively confirm that, even so, Governor Buni, is eyeing the chairmanship of the party, leaving the power brokers within the party to deal with their preference for a southern president in a candidate that they refer to as “a bridge.” But Buni would have to resign as governor to become the substantive national chairman of the party because the APC constitution bars its national chairman from holding any other office while in that position.
‘A bridge candidate’, according to THEWILL checks, is a hybrid candidate that has a South-East and South-South lineage.
THEWILL gathered that the thrust of their argument rests on the perception and uncertainty about zoning power to the South-East. The current crisis in the region involving the separatist Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and the Eastern Security Network (ESN) on one hand and lack of unity between IPOB and Ohanaeze Ndigbo on the status of the 2023 general elections in Igboland, has weakened the hand of those rooting for the party to zone the presidency to the South-East despite the unpopular defection of Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State from the PDP to the APC.
NO SHAKING FOR THE OPPOSITION
Nonetheless, the defection has not shaken the foundations of the PDP in the zone, considering that Umahi has unsuccessfully convinced all his appointees to defect with him, not to talk of moving with the party structures in the state. For those pressing this zoning arrangement, wooing more governors from the South-East and South-South into the APC could do the magic. And they will continue to pursue that strategy to exploit the possibility of taking power down south.
How that will work out is yet to be seen, especially against the background that, as THEWILL found in the course of investigation, Governor Ben Ayade’s defection from the PDP to the APC was a future foretold because he had been hobnobbing with the ruling party since 2018 and therefore, it was no surprise to his party that he defected. In addition, the South-East/ South-South zones have always voted massively for the PDP.
In any case, Ayade’s defection has opened the way for estranged members of the party, such as former Governor Donald Duke, to come back to the PDP. Moreover, the love-lost between IPOB and Ohanaeze and South-East governors on the support for the 2023 polls awakens the sad memory of the misuse of the powers handed the region in the zoning of the Senate Presidency to it by the PDP, whereby the zone produced the highest turnover of Senate Presidents in the nation’s history: Evan Ewerem; Chuba Okadigbo; Anyim Pius Anyim; Adolphus Nwabara and Ken Nnamani between 1999 and 2007 until the position was zoned to the North-Central, resulting in the emergence of David Mark, who served for two unbroken tenures, from 2007 to 2015.
Furthermore, there is palpable fear that the South-West zone, which is predominantly APC and second in voting strength after the North, may be alienated once the signal is given that the presidency should go the South-East.
WHO THE CAP FITS?
When THEWILL put the question recently to the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, whom this newspaper learnt fits into the description of the “bridge”, he parried the question.
“In November last year, campaign posters of you running for president with Governor Nasir el-Rufai as vice president were visibly positioned…”, THEWILL had asked him.
He, however, replied, rhetorically: “I wonder where those who printed those posters got the money from, but they must have enough money to waste that they can just go about printing posters.”
“So you have no ambitions for elected office?” the paper pursued.
Again, he parried it. “Can I finish what I am doing now?” he replied, adding, “How do you know that the President will not wake up one morning and announce that there is a new minister of transportation.”
With that, he foreclosed any further questions on 2023 politics.
ENTER THE PDP
Although it is in opposition, the PDP has shown its desperation, naturally, to return to the Presidential Villa by frontally criticising the Federal Government’s policies and programmes. And given its potential to do so, it is also skirting the same landmines like its major rival, the APC.
For one, a zoning formula is expressly stated in its constitution, but it seems to be ready to abandon it, if the APC makes a move that favours its permutations and calculations. The party produced Presidents from the South-West (Olusegun Obansanjo), Umaru Yar’Adua (North) and Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (South). So, constitutionally, it should go north now. But there is a snag. 2023 is a different ball game as both parties have been tested by Nigerians and found to have credibility baggage in governance.
Even so, Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, who chaired the committee the party set up to review why it lost the 2015 presidential election, came up with a futuristic report. It projected that there was a clamour in the party for the presidency to be zoned to the North-East or South-East, but it said that in consideration of present realities, the party had to throw the contest open. One of the permutations of the PDP is that the South-West is more politically discerning, among the six geo-political zones and the most likely to vote for good candidates, either as a bloc or split votes, if more acceptable candidates are in the contest.
When THEWILL contacted party spokesperson, Mr Kola Ologbodiyan, he confirmed the position of the Bala Mohammed committee report and added, “I do not know what the party decision would be. PDP has not decided on zoning,” even as he agreed that zoning is in the party’s constitution.
Ologbodiyan also disagrees that the PDP has not been frontal in addressing burning issues in relation to governance in the country.
“At every stage, we have provided alternative positions to the APC-led government. On insecurity, we proposed a carrot and stick approach because insurgency is an asymmetric war. But the fact remains that up till this time, the APC government has not been able to determine the true nature of the insurgency. At one point, the government said Sahelians were behind it. On the other hand, they asked governors to be accommodating to their neighbours. Are the Sahelians the neighbours of the governors? The government cannot define who we are fighting,” Ologbodiyan told THEWILL.
According to him, when the PDP was in power, it had a template to confront insurgency.
“It was public knowledge that Boko Haram sprung up after their leader in Borno State was killed. The party engaged mercenaries to fight alongside the military. APC, then in opposition, said they were killing their members. We have also called for the deployment of technology involving a multilateral security group, use of drones and aircraft to patrol our porous borders.
“We have also called for restructuring involving devolution of powers, state policing so state governors can take charge of security in their respective states. To all these suggestions and proposals, the government has not responded. So, it is wrong for anybody to say the PDP has not responded or defined a structure to deal with problems in the country,” he added.
Repeated calls to the General Secretary of the APC Committee, John Akpan Udoedeghe, went unanswered. But a competent party source told THEWILL that the status of the current exco of the party poses a serious problem.
“A party with a caretaker committee is saddled with a specific assignment and it cannot be seen to be making categorical statements on issues you have suggested. Don’t forget it is the ruling party whose president is the leader of the party. You want party leaders to be criticising the president?,” he queried.
When APC party chieftain and former Speaker of the Edo State House of Assembly, Bright Omokhodion, was asked the question, he said: “Without restructuring, there can be no election in 2023. During the recent constitution amendment review meeting, I spoke in the same vein when as a member of the Eminent Elders Group, we submitted a memorandum.”
The governing party has had cause to dump its own committee report on restructuring and federalism, which was processed by the Governor El-Rufai-led committee on the verge of the 2019 elections.
With the nationwide clamour for restructuring at the recent Constitution Amendment hearings and the position of the President that the National Assembly is the only competent power to restructure via amendments, the party has sidestepped its own agenda.
IDENTICAL REMEDY
A former presidential assistant under the PDP, who craved anonymity, told THEWILL, “The fact of the matter that seemed to make both big parties skirt the landmines, as you call it, is this: The reason may not be unconnected with the fact that they do not want to alienate groups, zones and regions. Some of the issues are localised within certain regions and none of the parties want to do or say anything that may be interpreted to its disadvantage. For any serious political party, the endgame is to win the election and the winning game is about numbers. Both parties would obviously be responding to whatever the other is doing, they want to win or retain power.”
A former Governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Shekarau, however came out frontally on Wednesday and advised APC to pick someone from the South as its presidential candidate in 2023.
Shekarau made the call during an interview with the BBC Hausa Service in Kano on Wednesday.
According to the serving senator, political power shift is important for all Nigerians to have a sense of belonging.
He said, “It is also the same with rotating the presidency
between the North and South.
“If we ignore power shifts, we’re not being fair to ourselves and we are not fair to history.
“In my opinion, a power shift is necessary for all Nigerians to have a sense of belonging.”
Shekarau, however, noted that although rotational presidency is not written in the APC’s constitution, it is desirable for justice and fairness.“For instance, the present six geopolitical zones are not reflected in Nigeria’s constitution, but it is a good arrangement. You cannot implement any policy in Nigeria without taking geopolitical zones into consideration,” he added.
About the Author
Amos Esele is the Deputy Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
