Nigerian Governors Stop Short Of Backing Jonathan

Governors of Nigeria's northern states said on Tuesday southern President Goodluck Jonathan had the constitutional right to stand in elections next year but stopped short of endorsing him.

A presidential bid by Jonathan in 2011 would be sensitive because he is from the Christian south, and an unwritten agreement in the ruling party dictates the president serving the next term should be from the Muslim north.

The so-called "zoning agreement", under which the presidency rotates every two terms, is designed to avoid either of the two main regions in Africa's most populous nation from feeling marginalised, but it has no constitutional basis.

Jonathan took over as head of state in May after the death of northern President Umaru Yar'Adua, part way through his first term in office. Under the zoning principle, a northerner should complete what would have been Yar'Adua's second term.

Jonathan's supporters and some northerners have said the zoning agreement should be jettisoned and he should be allowed to run in 2011, but the endorsement of the northern governors will be crucial if he is to carry the ruling party with him.

"The forum recognises the right of President Goodluck Jonathan and indeed of any other Nigerian to legitimately and constitutionally contest for the office of the president," Niger State Governor Babangida Aliyu, who is chairman of the Northern Governors' Forum, told reporters after a meeting in Kaduna.

But the 19 governors concluded that as the zoning principle was an internal agreement within the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), only the party could decide whether to abandon it.

"Wider consultations should continue at all levels within the PDP and all stakeholders across the nation ... in the interest of peaceful coexistence in our dear country," Aliyu said, reading from a communique.

The declaration does little to end uncertainty over who will contest the election with just 6 months to go until polling day.

HEDGING THEIR BETS

The House of Assembly on Tuesday passed a constitutional amendment, ratified last week by the Senate, bringing the polls forward to January, shortening the campaign period, putting pressure on the PDP to organise primaries, and on electoral authorities to implement badly needed reforms.

The state governors, influential figures who control budgets larger than those of some neighbouring nations, form a powerful caucus in the PDP and their support for Jonathan will be key.

Governors from the oil-producing south on Monday called on Jonathan to declare his candidacy and urged other parts of the country to also back him.

But Jonathan has said he does not want to announce his intentions too soon as it would be a distraction in a political environment that "gets too heated up".

Nobody wants to be first to declare their hand.

Jonathan's potential rivals within the PDP are treading cautiously because they do not want to burn their bridges in case the political momentum swings in his favour.

Should Jonathan decide not to run he is unlikely to make an announcement quickly because his power will evaporate as his minions scramble to align themselves with his likely successor.

The decision could also have implications for stability in some of Nigeria's most notorious flashpoints.

Jonathan is the first president from the Niger Delta, and his supporters in the restive heartland of Nigeria's oil and gas industry are likely to take a dim view of any move to persuade him against running.